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Li, a middle-aged man who has experienced blind dating says he has met women "who have no intention of finding a boyfriend. Meeting me is merely to indulge their parents". Crisis Group also confirmed 29 militant fatalities in northern Iraq in March and April as a result of cross-border airstrikes by the Turkish military. Confirmed fatalities in Tunceli, Bitlis and northern Iraq resulted from the military's decision last spring to intensify its iin to track down militants in mountainous areas and conduct cross-border operations in northern Iraq. Kurdish village guard deaths have increased since April Fifteen members of the state-funded Kurdish Village Guard were killed between April and Julya slight increase compared to the first four months of the year.
Ankara has ramped up recruitment for these paramilitary forces since January when it retired 18, guards over the age of 45 in a force that totals about 50, It plans to recruit 25, new paid guards, between 22 and 30 years old. Turkish media outlets reported that the newly-hired guards would be equipped with heavy weapons and take part in operations against the PKK. Civilians interviewed by Crisis Group in Nusaybin in early confirmed that Kurdish-speaking security personnel - most likely village guards - participated in anti-PKK operations.
Guards receive two weeks of basic military training immediately after joining plus supplementary training once a month. The government recently revitalised its system of "neighbourhood guards" in urban areas, probably in response to the PKK's urban tactic last year. The government plans to place neighbourhood guards in urban stations around the country to assist police and the military in maintaining "public order". The nationwide recruitment process continues: As Crisis Group previously warned, these urban and rural guards sometimes use their state-backed authority to advance personal interests. The system could thus ignite tensions and clashes between Kurdish clans and large families in the south east, a situation that the PKK could easily exploit.
Looking Ahead: A Grim Picture Violence is unlikely to diminish in the near future. Instead, there is a risk of greater conflict as Ankara steps up military efforts to eradicate the PKK including through cross-border military actionslimit YPG gains in northern Syria and marginalise the domestic, legal Kurdish movement. As for the PKK, it remains focused on gains in northern Syria and may be further emboldened by the direct military support its affiliate, the YPG, now receives from the U. The U.
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However, violence could escalate once the Raqqa offensive ends, if US engagement falters, or if Ankara further intensifies military operations against the YPG around Afrin, in north-western Syria. Domestically, the government's crackdown on the Kurdish political movement continues. Avenues for constructive engagement and political channels remain closed. As Crisis Group argued in its latest reportthe marginalisation of the legal Kurdish political movement could have long-term consequences, legitimising resort to violent means and driving up PKK recruitment. A resumption of talks appears unlikely in the foreseeable future but remains the only viable path to resolving this deadly conflict.
Nusaybin, a political stronghold of the Kurdish movement bordering Syria, is among Turkey's urban south-eastern districts that saw unprecedented levels of violence in While conflict fatigue can be observed in this town where 30, lost their homes, so can a distinct sense that a political solution is not in sight.
In twenty-one months, at least cire, died, aroundlost their homes, and up towere temporarily displaced. Turkish security forces conducted hundreds of cizde in urban and rural areas of i south Blins, while the PKK - after a period of intense clashes in urban centres and attacks with Blid explosive devices Ciare also in western cities of Turkey cisre returned to fighting in rural areas Blinr June With the rise to dominance of nationalist cadres and hardline Blond in Ankara, the state's approach is to weaken the PKK as much as possible; marginalise the main Bllnd Kurdish political entity, the Peoples' Democratic Party HDP ; win over locals via better services and infrastructure,; and nurture other Kurdish political actors that might serve as an alternative to the HDP.
Residents in the conflict-torn south east are fed contradictory narratives as to why the escalation reached such levels. Residents are bitter toward the state but also blame the PKK for being ready to Blinv its social base in Turkey to pursue the unrealistic ambition of carving out autonomous neighbourhoods with trenches and barricades. State initiatives to rebuild Nusaybin's neighbourhoods and compensate residents for material losses have taken time daye develop, and transparency is lagging. The government is making diligent efforts to compensate for the true value of destroyed property, but administrative gaffes and delays exacerbate longstanding mistrust of state authorities.
Clearing explosives from neighbourhoods where fighting occurred, the authorities say, required cizrre buildings kn were still standing, but it fuelled speculation that the destruction was intended Blindd allow new construction daate would facilitate security measures against renewed urban warfare. Despite genuine progress, the physical reconstruction of houses will not be sufficient to restore trust between the state and the local population or to rejuvenate fully the town's social dynamism any time soon. The government needs to meet expectations regarding revitalising small businesses, which may require allowing controlled border trade, and adequately address the psycho-social needs of people traumatised by the conflict.
More broadly, the central authorities' removal of elected representatives and purge of locally-trusted municipality personnel have consolidated a sense among Kurdish movement supporters that their political orientation and culture is not recognised. That, plus the stifling of public debate, ban on mass protests in some areas and strong security force presence also has strengthened the perception that there is no outlet for democratic politics. For some, it has left armed struggle as a legitimate response.
In the wake of the 16 April referendum, in which 79 per cent of Nusaybin residents voted "no", the government extended for three months the emergency rule that has been in place since the failed coup. This is hardly the best way to suggest a shift toward the inclusive, pluralistic policies required to win hearts and minds. At a minimum, state officials should engage with local residents by hiring staff that is more attuned to the social fabric, and proactively try to address the trust deficit. With no elections scheduled for two years, he may be less intent on mobilising nationalist constituencies.
That would be the right choice. The alternative - impeding channels for the legitimate representation of the Kurdish movement and ignoring longstanding political demands and grievances - would ensure that adversity festers and segments of the population radicalise. By the same token, if the government continues to broadly apply anti-terror legislation so as to criminalise the mere fact of contradicting official accounts, there will be no hope for the resumption of more constructive, peaceful public debate on resolving Turkey's PKK conflict. That is the key. With the coming of spring, mutual escalation of that confrontation is likely; the Syrian war, in which Ankara and Kurdish affiliates of the PKK are at odds, further magnifies the danger.
The only way to durable peace remains new talks between Turkey and the PKK, accompanied - on a separate track - by an effort to satisfy Turkey's Kurdish population on core issues such as mother-tongue education, de-centralisation, a lower electoral threshold, reform of anti-terror laws and an ethnically neutral constitution. During the 2. Urban warfare followed the ceasefire's collapse in July PKK militants set up barricades and dug trenches to keep state security forces out. The government imposed curfews, closing residential neighbourhoods of some 40 south-eastern districts for periods ranging from hours to months. For a glossary of acronyms and abbreviations used in this report, see Appendix D below.
International organisations and local human rights NGOs have reported extensively on alleged human rights abuses. A third report concluded: Hospitals were turned into military headquarters, medical centres were destroyed, health workers were literally held hostage in hospitals. Elderly, pregnant women, children, people with chronic illnesses have frequently faced obstacles in access to treatment and unfortunately some of these cases resulted in death".
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Hide Footnote Crisis Fate open-source casualty infographic indicates the conflict's death toll between the breakdown of Blinr ceasefire and 25 April has been at dzte 2, The government claims to have killed 11, PKK militants since resumption of violence in July Operations had ended in many districts, but the most intense period was just beginning in the town of Nusaybin, cize a day curfew ran from 14 March to 25 July Since then, operations have taken place only in rural areas of the town, reflecting the general shift of the fighting away from urban centres back to the traditional arena of the year conflict.
When Crisis Group visited Nusaybin in Februarythere was relative calm in the town but also a strong security presence, and security operations were ongoing in rural areas and villages of the district. The south east's atmosphere has been deeply impacted by larger domestic political developments. The post-coup climate and emergency rule enabled a massive purge in state institutions, along with intense pressure and restrictions on media, academia and civil society, while impunity for security forces increased with legislative changes.
The referendum campaign both fed off and played into marginalisation of the Kurdish movement. The political leadership framed a "no" vote as support for terrorists, while high-ranking PKK figures expressed opposition to the constitutional changes.
Local Kurdish movement representatives not arrested were under immense pressure. Nevertheless, 61 per cent of voters in the twelve provinces that in November supported the HDP voted Blinx the changes. It accuses the EU and its member states - with which relations are also strained over what Ankara considers unfair obstacles in Blind date in cizre accession process and failure to keep its end of the refugee deal, Blinr Brussels objects to what it sees cizer Ankara's dangerous disregard for liberal principles and EU values - of leniency toward the PKK and aiding PKK-linked individuals in their countries and pushing for changes in Turkish anti-terror laws that could embolden terrorists.
Hide Footnote While Ankara's public line is that a military solution to the PKK conflict is within reach, officials privately acknowledge that the insurgency's eradication is unrealistic. Hide Footnote Rather, the strategy appears to be to weaken the PKK as much as operationally possible, curb its affiliate's aspirations in Syria, paralyse and discredit the HDP and dilute its influence by nurturing alternative Kurdish actors. A year Blond examining the human cost of the conflict in Sur, Crisis Group looks in this report at Nusaybin, on the Syrian border, an area deeply impacted by the recent cycle of violent escalation between the PKK and the Turkish state.
The report assesses the extent to which Turkey's strategy is yielding desired results as opposed to unintended consequences, as Blond as how the conflict's human cost and its social and cizee fallout might be better ccizre. Conflict Dynamics im Narratives A. The Surge of Violence Nusaybin, in Mardin province at the border with Syria and with a population of around , predominately Kurdish, many of whom have relatives in the Syrian town of Qamishli, is a political stronghold of the Kurdish movement. The town is strategically important for Ankara due to its close proximity to Qamishli, which is predominately PYD-controlled. The population of Nusaybin dropped to aroundafter the urban combat.
Political consolidation paralleled a surge in Kurdish nationalism in the town, where the PKK had begun during the peace process to mobilise youths. Hide Footnote Nusaybin saw unprecedented violence inwith a death toll of at leastof whom 24 were civilians. Crisis Group categorised six deaths as "youths of unknown affiliation" and confirmed 24 civilian deaths in clashes. See www. Hide Footnote Six of the town centre's fifteen neighbourhoods were fully destroyed; some 6, buildings were demolished or heavily damaged; around 30, people lost their homes.
Hide Footnote While officially the town lost 10 per cent of its residents ina local source estimated the decrease at around 35 per cent. The plan is set to include investment incentives and subsidies to small and medium enterprises and farmers. However, he dismissed any notion that the Turkish government would allow for any decentralisation or autonomy in the region, one of the major demands by Kurdish militants and HDP politicians. Merkel heads to Turkey It was also announced on Friday that German Chancellor Angela Merkel would travel to Turkey on Monday to discuss "the further implementation of the EU-Turkey action plan" to stem the flow of refugees into Europe.
Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert said they would discuss aspects of the plan that have not yet been implemented and examine "how we can make progress on reducing illegal migration and replacing it with legal migration". Merkel and Davutoglu signed an agreement on 22 January to "do everything to reduce the number of refugees," with the EU settling on a 3. Kurdish men, women and children are paying for Erdogan's tyrannical self-interest with their lives on a daily basis. As of October a total of curfews had been declared, in 9 provinces and at least 35 districts. As a result this groups fundamental rights where severly violated. Such rights included the right to freedom and security, travel, communication, environment, respect for private and family life, freedom of assembly; freedom of religion, freedom to access information, right to protection of property, right to education, prohibition of torture and inhuman or degrading treatment, the right to life and physical integrity were severely violated.
During the curfews announced in December numerous crimes were committed, first and foremost mass killings and forced depopulation, as curfews began to last for months. It has been established that no precautions whatsoever were taken to protect fundamental rights and freedoms during these long lasting curfews. During this process,while absolutely no measures were taken to evacuate civilians from the conflict areas,groups of people attempting to leave urban areas carrying white flags were fired upon.